Climate Projections

The ItaliaMeteo Agency spreads climatological assessments across the country, making use of the most modern climate modeling systems.

The essential tool to describe the climate over future decades is the numerical model, which can be used on a global scale (the General Climate Circulation Models, or GCMs) or even on more limited portions of the globe, and in that case they are Regional Climate Models, or RCMs.
On the basis of simulations of future climate, indicators such as average values, variability, extremes, probabilities of occurrence, estimates of return times of possible intense events, and other variables can be calculated.

In climate projections, forcings, both natural and anthropogenic, internal and external to the physical system whose evolution is being assessed and that act on the climate system, in all its complexity, assume a key role. Among these there are in particular the emissions of climate-altering gases, or greenhouse gases, whose considerable increase found in the last 100-150 years of the planet’s history has led to the climate disruption we are observing and which is creating impacts in all sectors of activities, ecosystems and territories.
Simulations obtained by including anthropogenic forcings in the models, as also evidenced by the latest IPCC synthesis report of 2023, show continued warming for the next decades too, with a rate that may be moderate if drastic greenhouse gas emission reduction measures are implemented, or much higher in the absence of significant emission cuts.