Italy weather scenarios

The data provided here are obtained using the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model in a specific configuration tailored for Italy, developed by the CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change). The presentation is prepared through DataClime, a service designed to provide climate analysis using both high-resolution climate projections developed by CMCC and those made available through other programs and projects. For each of the three periods (2021-2050; 2041-2070; 2071-2100), the maps indicate anomalies in terms of average values compared to the reference period 1981-2010.

The climate scenarios used
The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are climate scenarios expressed in terms of greenhouse gas concentrations rather than emission levels. The number associated with each RCP refers to Radiative Forcing (RF) expressed in units of Watts per square meter (W/m2) and indicates the magnitude of anthropogenic climate changes by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial period: for instance, each RCP shows a different amount of additional heat stored in the Earth system as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Among the IPCC scenarios primarily adopted for high-resolution climate simulations, we propose RCP4.5 (Strong Mitigation), which assumes the implementation of some initiatives to control emissions. Stabilization scenarios are considered: by 2070, CO2 emissions decrease below current levels, and atmospheric concentration stabilizes, reaching approximately twice pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.