Monthly forecasts

The maps show monthly forecasts for Italy (seasonal forecasts) produced by ItaliaMeteo, based on ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts. 

The median ensemble values (50th percentile) of the monthly averages of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and total precipitation are displayed, shown alongside the corresponding anomalies relative to the reference climatology (1993-2022). 

The interactive maps, relating to the current month and the following three months, allow users to open box plot graphs with details for each Italian provincial capital. 

New forecast runs – each based on ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble members – are issued by the 10th of each month. The maps are available on the MeteoHub platform.

HOW THEY ARE PRODUCED 

The methodology developed by ItaliaMeteo is based on statistical downscaling performed using the quantile mapping technique, applied to the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts. ERA5-Land and ERA5 reanalysis datasets (for marine areas) are used as references. 

The result is calibrated forecasts with increased spatial resolution (downscaling with bias correction), corresponding to approximately 10 km (grid spacing of 0.1°). 

For further information: MeteoHub