Forecasts
To integrate expertise and optimise resources at a national level, ItaliaMeteo works to strengthen coordination and implement an operational system for forecasting waves, currents and sea levels throughout Italy. This system is capable of providing both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble modelling.
For marine weather forecasts, the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave propagation model, developed by NOAA and relating to sea conditions, is available at the national level, allowing the characteristics of the forecast waves to be described with a spatial resolution of a few hundred meters.
The geographical domain covers the entire Mediterranean basin, with a resolution ranging from approximately 18 km (open sea) to 150-200 m (along the Italian coast). The atmospheric forcing (wind at 10 meters) is obtained through the spatial blending of ICON-2I (resolution of 2.2 km, Italian domain) and ECMWF-IFS (resolution of approximately 9 km, external domain) models.
This modeling can be used to provide basin-scale information and boundary conditions for local models with higher resolution and spatial detail. These models have been implemented by regional structures over the years to meet specific needs.
Oceanographic (or circulation) modeling provides daily details on changes over time in sea level, currents, temperature, and salinity. There are various sub-regional implementations (e.g., Adriac on the Adriatic Sea, ROMS on the Tyrrhenian Sea) or local-scale implementations, which must be enhanced and systematized at the national level.
For an effective assessment of the impacts on the coastal strip, coastal morphodynamic models (which allow predictions to be made of flooding, sediment transport and redistribution, and erosion of beaches and dune systems) and Oil-Spill models for predicting the dispersion and transport of accidentally released pollutants, which are also used for search and rescue operations.
Additional regional-scale forecasts (Mediterranean Sea) are provided by the Copernicus Marine Service systems, which update their catalogs daily with numerous forecast products for all the world’s seas, including the Mediterranean Sea.
Sea state forecasts capture wave properties at specific locations and times. This information is typically presented in terms of significant height, direction of propagation, mean period, and peak period. These valuable insights are derived from advanced numerical forecasting models.
In the broader context of meteorological and marine forecasting, the field of oceanography delves into the biological, geological, chemical, and physical processes within the oceans.
Oceanographic forecasts, obtained through numerical marine forecasting models, provide daily and detailed information on sea level, currents, temperature, and salinity variations over time.